Yesterday, I gazed into my crystal ball (a.k.a. the American SSA’s Popular Baby Name website), and predicted what boys’ names will be in the top 10 in 2035.
They were:
- Lucas
- Judah
- Jacob
- Rafferty
- Elijah
- Owen
- Silas
- William
- Indigo
- Joseph
My method is simple. How were today’s top ten ranked in 1985? And what names occupied those spots in 2010?
Today’s top ten girls’ names were ranked as follows in 1985:
- Isabella: Unranked (only 34 girls received the name in 1985)
- Sophia: 236 (in slight decline in 1985, though generally rising)
- Emma: 267 (rising)
- Olivia: 248 (in decline — but started to rise again in 1986)
- Ava: Unranked (only 132 girls called Ava in 1984, but it re-entered the charts again in 1986)
- Emily: 24 (rising rapidly)
- Abigail: 153 (rising)
- Madison: 628 (its first appearance in the rankings, prompted by the 1984 film Splash)
- Chloe: 564 (rising)
- Mia: 438 (rising)
And their 2035 replacements look like this (with a bit of tweaking)
- HERMIONE. Many people are pretty amazed to find out that not only was today’s darling Isabella not in the top 1000 in 1985, but only 34 baby girls were given the name at all. There were some interesting names in the same place in 2010, including Ara, Empress, Indiana, Mathilda, Saba, Wisdom and Zamora, but I can’t see any making the top 10 (Mathilda’s big sister Matilda might, but she is in the top 1000). There are one or two interesting possibilities among the names given to 35 little girls, such as Clarice, Lavinia and Polly; while another old classic Ursula was borne by only 32 girls in 2010, but it is lovely Hermione, given to only 37 baby girls in 2010 that gets my vote. I can’t help thinking it’s only a matter of time that the USA finally embraces her, and that she’s the one to watch from the bottom of this barrel.
- ELIZA. Jayda occupies the present 236th slot, but although she may rise quite high, I think her time in the sun will be over by 2035. Nearby, however, Eliza (240) is rising.
- ESTHER is 267. She’s been away in the wilderness a while, but I think the tide is turning in her favor now.
- HARMONY. Ranked 248th is Cassidy, but she’s in decline. Harmony, however, is 249th, and rising…
- CLEMENTINE — 132 little girls were called Clementine in 2010. This beauty vanished from the top 1000 in 1953; in 1994, less than three girls received the name (if any at all), but since then, the numbers have generally been increasing.
- LEAH is 24. Like her predecessor Emily was, twenty-five years ago, she’s steadily rising. Will she have made the top ten by 2035? Perhaps.
- DAISY. Actually ranked 151 in 2010; 153rd was Makenzie, which is in decline and pretty unlikely to be in 6th place in 2035 now. Popular in the UK, Daisy, however, is on the rise again. Another possibility from the 150s is Vivian (158).
- ANNABEL is 628. She re-entered the top 1000 in 2000 and might well go places.
- ROSA is 564. She’s at her lowest yet, but surely the time is ripe now for her fortunes to change? They have already in Britain.
- ADELAIDE. In the 438th spot is Kadence, a doubtful top ten contender for 2035. Adelaide (434), however, is rocketing up the charts. Another possibility is Helen, languishing in the 437th spot. Its a long time now since she was in favor, and perhaps its her time to shine once more?
Nook of Names
Girls’ names are so much harder than the boys! If I were predicting the top 10 of 2035 based on current trends alone, I would say:
Harper
Emma
Stella
Eliza
Addison (or one of the Ad- names)
Lily (or one of the Lil- names)
Charlotte
Eva (or a similar Ava replacement)
Sophia/Sophie
One of the Greek names (a Chloe replacement)… maybe Zoe, Phoebe, Penelope… who knows
Not in that exact order.
Charlotte, Stella, Eva, Lily and Penelope, I agree, are possibilites for the “real” top ten in 2035 (remember I did the predictions within the narrow constraits of the current data, with very little room for any “gut feeling”).
I disagree about Harper, Emma, Addison, Lily and Sophia, though. I’ve looked back at where the most popular names were 25 years previously for 1985, 1960, 1935 and 1910, and one thing is abundantly clear: the rate at which names come into — and fall out of — fashion is speeding up, especially for girls’ names. I suspect the internet is only going to accelerate that change.
If you look at the data, not one of the current top ten girls’ names was in the top ten 25 years ago. The same was true of the top ten in 1985 — none had been there in 1960. In 1960, only Mary and Patricia had survived from 1935…
In 2010, the name which had been closest to the top ten in 1985 was Emily, in 24th place. Nothing higher. Meanwhile, if you look at where 1985′s top ten are now, no. 2′s Ashley (today’s Sophia) is now in 27th and dropping quickly, while no.3′s Jennifer (today’s Emma) has fallen through the floor to 120th. I think we can infer, therefore, fairly confidently, that by 2035, Emma and Sophia’s time in the sun will be well and truly over.
As for Addison, I think that whole Madison/Addison thing will have become very dated. Likewise, Harper will have come and gone. That’s the problem with uber-fashionable names; they have meteoric rises and meteoric falls. Harper is very “now.”
At least we agree completely on Eliza!
I would love to see Hermione in the #1 spot!! Can it really happen, I wonder?
The others look very likely; Eliza, Annabel and Adelaide are already Top 100 here, and Daisy and Clementine are rising fast.
Whoa, I can’t imagine Isabella not ranking! I was really shocked.
I totally agree with Hermione, and forsee many other Harry Potter names making it into the top 1000 in the future.
I also imagine there will be a repeat of popular 80s names if those kids are naming babies after their parents, but I have no clue if those names would make it into the top 10, 100 or even 1000.
There were some lovely names about in the ’80s, but if the current established pattern continues, I fear these are likely to be in their worst doldrums by then, just like the names of 1960 are so out of favor now (not many baby girls called Susan, Linda, Donna, Lisa, Patricia, Debra/Deborah or Cynthia at the moment — the only one which still ranks moderately high is Mary at 109). But who knows? I really suspect the pace of change in name fashion will have speeded up still further, the “most popular” names will have proportionally fewer bearers, and the “name pool” will be even bigger.
This is fascinating. I think what’s so odd about thinking of Isabella (or Olivia, maybe) as sounding like Linda and Donna is that they are pretty classic names. It’s just a testament to what trends can do. Put a solidly classic name on enough people, and it will date to a particular decade or two. The same thing could happen to *any* name it seems.
So in some ways, I’m glad to see the ancients making their way forward, but if ever any of them become *most* popular, It saddens me that they will be lodged into a decade for several generations of namers, rather than maintain their proper seat in history. Is there any name that can hold it’s place, such that even being the most popular name in a decade won’t sort of dislodge it? I’m thinking specifically of the ancient Greeks. Are they immune to this? Are their original associations strong enough to compete with the decade factor?
Any name that has ever been used has its place in history. It’s one of the things I find so interesting about them
.
Naming fashions and practices have always come and gone, in every time and every place. In our current Western society, the days of names seeing little change in fashion or popularity, and the same names remaining the most popular for decades have gone. I see little chance of it returning. Society has changed, and names reflect that.
But it’s nothing to be sad about. I think there’ll be more variety and dynamism in names and naming practices in the twenty-first century than there has been for centuries. That’s exciting. And I’d be prepared to put money on that whatever name IS top in 2035, the number of girls who bear that name will be significantly less than the the number called Isabella last year.
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